XRP is making waves again, but not the kind that hodlers want to see. On March 10, XRP’s daily chart hit its lowest candle close in 99 days, slipping below the crucial $2 support level. But don’t despair just yet—March 11 saw a short-lived bounce back with a 12% recovery. The question is, can XRP hold the line, or are we in for a deeper dive?
Zooming out to the high time frame charts, XRP needs to stay above that psychological $2 mark. However, some indicators suggest stormy seas ahead. The market sentiment is shifting, and it’s not looking bullish. XRP is currently down 37.1% from its all-time high of $3.40. Back on February 3, a similar dip was quickly absorbed by eager buyers, pushing prices above $2.50. But this time, the market isn’t as forgiving.
The spot and perpetual markets for XRP have been on a bearish streak over the past week. Data from aggr.trade shows a significant drop in XRP’s spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) by 50% in March. A negative CVD means sellers are outpacing buyers, with the current value at -$408 million, indicating dwindling demand.
Futures traders are also feeling bearish vibes, with perpetual CVD dropping to -1.18 billion on March 11. The open interest-weighted funding rate for XRP has turned notably negative, suggesting an influx of short positions in recent days.
Adding fuel to the fire, XRP whales are on a selling spree. The volume bubble map shows a surge in activity towards the end of February, aligning with an ongoing distribution phase for XRP. This phase typically sees large investors offloading their positions to lock in gains, often near the peak of an upward trend.
Data reveals that this distribution phase has intensified over the past week. Whale outflows, measured as a 30-day moving average, have been on the rise. Between March 4 and March 10, these large holders offloaded roughly $838 million in positions, reflecting the bearish sentiment surrounding XRP.
Now, let’s talk patterns. On March 11, XRP’s 1-day chart closed below $2.05, marking the critical neckline of the daily head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern is notorious for its bearish implications when observed on high time frame charts.
If XRP fails to reclaim $2.05 as support, lower prices could be on the horizon. The immediate target zone lies between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement lines—often called the “golden zone”—ranging from $1.90 to $1.60. In this bearish climate, a retest of the 0.618 Fibonacci or $1.60 seems likely.
Should XRP fail to hold this range, a retest of the long-term demand zone between $1.58 and $1.27 could be next on the cards.
Remember, this article doesn’t offer investment advice or recommendations. Every move in the crypto world involves risk, so do your own research before making any decisions. Stay informed and keep your eyes on the charts!
