Betters on Polymarket believe it’s now a certainty that the US Federal Reserve will wind down its quantitative tightening (QT) program by May of this year, a move many analysts say could trigger the next leg of the crypto bull market.
By March 14, Polymarket’s betting odds that the Fed would end QT by April 30 was 100%, where it remains unchanged at the time of writing.
The wager, titled “Will Fed end QT before May?,” has more than $6.2 million in cumulative trading volume.
Polymarket users have assigned a 100% probability that the Fed will end quantitative tightening in the coming months. Source: Polymarket
Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market that lets betters wager on real-world events. It rose to prominence during the 2024 US presidential election cycle, where it accurately predicted the ascent of Donald Trump.
Quantitative tightening is a monetary policy tool used by the Fed to draw money out of the economy by letting the bonds on its balance sheet mature. It’s the opposite of quantitative easing or the balance sheet expansion that the central bank embarked on following the 2008 financial crisis.
The Fed’s current QT regime has been ongoing since June 2022 as a complement to other inflation-reducing policies. In addition to raising short-term interest rates, the Fed uses QT to raise long-term rates and drain excess liquidity from the market.
Although the start of QT didn’t prevent stocks and crypto prices from rallying — these markets are coming off back-to-back years of impressive growth — it has become a bottleneck due to the recent macroeconomic shocks stemming from the Trump administration.
This was predicted in 2022 by Cambridge Associates senior investment director TJ Scavone, who said the negative side effects of QT would be felt once “something breaks”:
“With QT just now ramping up, the risk it poses to financial markets appears low. Yet, adding QT to what is an already difficult and volatile market environment may worsen market conditions, increasing the risk that “something breaks” from overtightening.”
Crypto’s strong correlation with traditional markets exposed the asset class to extreme volatility in February. By March, the S&P 500 Index was officially in correction territory — and Bitcoin (BTC) was down roughly 30% from its January peak.
The growing belief that the Fed is ready to wind down QT is seen by many as a bullish catalyst for crypto, as more liquidity will eventually trickle down into risk assets. Combined with rate cuts in the second half of the year, there may be enough policy drivers to reverse the crypto market’s multimonth downtrend.
This general playbook is supported by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who believes the end of QT will be followed by a broad market rally.
Although the Fed hasn’t confirmed whether it will wind down its QT program, the minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed that some officials were concerned about balance sheet reductions impacting the government’s debt ceiling debate:
“Regarding the potential for significant swings in reserves over coming months related to debt ceiling dynamics, various participants noted that it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet runoff until the resolution of this event.”
Important policy changes at the Fed are coinciding with a broad pickup in the business cycle. As Cointelegraph recently reported, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been in expansion mode for two consecutive months following more than two years of contraction.
During the last two crypto market cycles, Bitcoin’s peak coincided with the top of the business cycle, as expressed by the manufacturing PMI.
Bitcoin’s price exhibits a strong correlation with the ISM manufacturing PMI. Source: TomasOnMarkets
Ethereum price is more than 52% down from its December 2024 high at $4,107 and data from TradingView shows ETH (ETH) down 42% since the start of 2025.
Despite being one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization and holding the dominant spot as the leader in Web3 and DeFi, many analysts believe that ETH’s price prospects remain grim in the short term.
Crypto analyst and chartered market technician Askel Kibar warned traders against assuming that ETH price trades at a discount simply based on how far off it is from its average trading price.
On X, Kibar explained that “bottom reversals take time” given that “ all that supply needs to be accumulated.”
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: X / Aksel Kibar
Referring to the chart above, Kibar said,
“Those of you that want to see ETH outperform BTC need to see similar price action to 2018-2020 period. After an extending downtrend price formed a double bottom late in 2019. Then it turned out to a larger scale H&S bottom reversal.”
Currently, ETH’s chart does not show any type of bottoming formation, leading Kibar to compare trading Ethereum to “catching a falling knife.”
Standard Chartered chops 2025 ETH price to $4,000
Standard Chartered added to the dim outlook via a March 17 client letter, which revised down their end of 2025 ETH price estimate from $10,000 to $4,000, a drastic 60% reduction.
Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of Digital Assets Research, said, “We expect ETH to continue its structural decline.” Adding that:
“Layer 2 blockchains were meant to improve ETH scalability, but we estimate that Base (a key layer 2) has removed USD 50bn from ETH’s market cap.”
Kendrick cited lower ETH fees, a “higher net issuance,” and layer 2 blockchains “taking Ethereum’s GDP” as an unexpected result of the Dencun upgrade.
Adding to their observation of Base absorbing Ethereum’s fee revenue, Kendrick said,
“In particular, Base — a layer 2 that was developed to address the problem of scalability on Ethereum— is passing all the profit (fee revenue minus data recording fees) it extracts to Coinbase, its corporate owner.”
VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, the firm’s Senior Analyst on Digital Assets, concur with the dim ETH price view held by many analysts. In a March 5 note to investors, the researchers cited ETH’s decline as being “largely due to the erosion of the core factors that once made Ethereum valuable.”
The analysts again cited layer 2 blockchains Arbitrum and Base as catalysts in diminishing ETH’s fee revenue, along with the popularity of memecoin trading on the Solana blockchain.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), continues to consolidate under $2,000, which some traders view as a psychological level. Ether price slipped below this range on March 10, and the altcoin continues to trade at its lowest value since October 2023.
Ether price has also lost market value with respect to other major altcoins, with XRP price reaching its highest level against ETH in five years on March 15.
The real question among investors is whether ETH is capable of recapturing a portion of its recent losses or whether traders will capitulate if the price falls below $1,900.
Ethereum traders could jump ship if price falls below $1,900
According to data from IntoTheBlock, a data analytics platform, Ethereum holders accumulated 3.56 million ETH between $1,900 and $1,843, with an average price of $1,871. Therefore, the current accumulation value currently stands at $6.65 billion. This indicates that ETH’s price has a strong support level between $1,900 and $1,843, which can potentially act as the bullish reversal zone.
Ethereum In/Out of the Money chart. Source: X.com
However, if Ether drops below $1,843, data points to the possibility of rising capitulation fears. Capitulation is a market sentiment where investors tend to panic, selling their positions at a loss during a sharp market correction. If ETH consolidates for a prolonged period under $1,843, the likelihood of a deeper correction increases exponentially.
Below $1,843, the size and volume of ETH accumulation are significantly lower, which further illustrates the importance of the $1,900 to $1,843 support range.
Similarly, the percentage of Ethereum addresses under profit dropped to its lowest level since the start of the decade. It is the lowest value since December 2022 at just under 46%.
ETH: Percentage of addresses in Profit. Source: X
A low percentage of profitable addresses has historically indicated a price bottom for Ethereum. Given the high ETH accumulation and fewer profitable addresses, these factors may act as bullish signals. As a result, the likelihood of Ethereum consolidating below $1,843 in the long term is decreasing.
Hitesh Malviya, the founder of DYOR crypto, said it is not a “great time to bearish on ETH.” In an X post, Malviya highlighted the recent rise of real-world assets (RWAs) in the industry, with a 50.9% increase in growth over the past 30 days and an 850% yearly increase, with Ethereum and ZKsync capturing more than 80% of the total market share.
RWA’s market share on L1s. Source: X
Related: Bitcoin ‘bullish cross’ with 50%-plus average returns flashes again
Ethereum long/short ratio indicates a neutral market
Alphractal, a crypto data analysis website, reviewed Ether’s current market sentiment based on the long/short ratio, a metric to evaluate the proportion of futures traders betting for price increases (long) versus decreases (shorts).
Whales vs. Retail ratio heatmap. Source: X
According to the chart above, the largest investors are more inclined toward taking long positions, whereas smaller investors are in the process of deleveraging. Deleveraging means unwinding risky, borrowed positions, which lowers market volatility and interest in leveraged trading.
With the current ratio at 1.3, the long/short ratio indicates a balanced but cautious market. Alphractal added,
“This indicates that, in the short term, Ethereum is experiencing low volatility and low interest in leverage, which may leave many traders exhausted and impatient.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin (BTC) has largely stayed above $80,000 since March 11, indicating that the bulls are not waiting for a deeper correction to buy. However, the failure to propel the price above $86,000 shows that the bears have not given up and continue to sell on rallies.
CoinShares’ weekly report shows that cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) witnessed $1.7 billion in outflows last week. That takes the total five-week outflows to $6.4 billion. Additionally, the streak of outflows has reached 17 days, marking the longest negative streak since CoinShares records began in 2015.
It’s not all gloom and doom for the long-term investors. CryptoQuant contributor ShayanBTC said that investors who purchased Bitcoin between three and six months ago are showing an accumulation pattern. Historically, similar behavior has “played a crucial role in forming market bottoms and igniting new uptrends.”
Will buyers succeed in catapulting Bitcoin above the overhead resistance levels? How are the altcoins placed? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is in a strong corrective phase. The fall to 5,504 on March 13 sent the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold territory, signaling a possible relief rally in the near term.
The bears will try to halt the recovery in the 5,670 to 5,773 resistance zone. If they succeed, it will signal that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That heightens the risk of a fall to 5,400. The bulls are expected to defend the 5,400 level with all their might because a drop below it may sink the index to 5,100.
On the upside, a break and close above the 20-day exponential moving average (5,780) will signal strength. The index may then climb to the 50-day simple moving average (5,938).
US Dollar Index price analysis
The weak rebound off the 103.37 support in the US Dollar Index (DXY) suggests that the bears have kept up the pressure.
Sellers are trying to sink the index below 103.37. If they can pull it off, the decline could extend to 102 and thereafter to 101.
Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above 104, it will signal that buyers are trying to make a comeback. The index could rise to the 20-day EMA (105), which is likely to attract sellers. If buyers do not cede much ground to the bears, the prospects of a break above the 20-day EMA increase. The index could then rally to the 50-day SMA (107).
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin has been trying to form a higher low in the near term, building strength to cross above the 200-day SMA ($84,112).
The positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum is weakening. If buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($85,808), the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($92,621).
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down sharply from the 200-day SMA, it will indicate that the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance. The pair may slide to $80,000 and next to $76,606.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has been trading between $1,963 and $1,821, signaling a lack of aggressive buying at current levels.
If the price dips below the $1,821 to $1,754 support zone, it will indicate the resumption of the downtrend. The ETH/USDT pair may then nosedive to the next significant support at $1,550.
This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($2,107). The pair could ascend to the 50-day SMA ($2,514), where the bears are likely to sell aggressively. However, if the bulls pierce the 50-day SMA resistance, the pair may rally to $2,857.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($2.51) on March 15, indicating that the bears are active at higher levels.
The 20-day EMA ($2.34) has flattened out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The XRP/USDT pair could remain stuck between the 50-day SMA and $2 for some time.
If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 50-day SMA, it will clear the path for a potential rally to $3. Instead, a break and close below $2 will complete a head-and-shoulders pattern. The pair may then tumble to $1.28.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) turned up from the 20-day EMA ($598) and rose above the 50-day SMA ($620), indicating that the correction may be ending.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn up, and the RSI has risen into positive territory, indicating a slight advantage to the bulls. If the price sustains above the 50-day SMA, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to $686 and eventually to $745.
The 20-day EMA is the critical support to watch out for on the downside. A break and close below the 20-day EMA will signal that the bears have seized control. The pair may then descend to the strong support at $500.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($139) on March 16, signaling that bears are aggressively defending the level.
The SOL/USDT pair could drop to $120 and then to $110, where buyers are expected to step in. If the price rebounds off the support zone, the bulls will again try to drive the SOL/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could climb to $180.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price continues lower and breaks below the support zone. That may start a downward move to $100 and subsequently to $80.
If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it suggests that bears are selling on every minor rally. That heightens the risk of a break below the $0.14 support. If that happens, the DOGE/USDT pair could plunge to $0.10.
Contrarily, a break and close above the 20-day EMA indicates that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.23) and later to $0.29. A break and close above $0.29 suggests that buyers are back in the driver’s seat.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been trading below the 20-day EMA ($0.76) since March 8, but the bears have failed to sink the pair to the uptrend line. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.
Buyers will have to drive the price above the moving averages to start a sustained recovery. The ADA/USDT pair could climb to $1.02, where the bears may again mount a strong defense.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that bears remain in control. That increases the likelihood of a drop below the uptrend line. If that happens, the pair may plummet to $0.50.
Pi price analysis
Pi (PI) has been gradually sliding toward the $1.23 support, which is likely to attract buying from the bulls.
If the price rebounds off $1.23 with strength, the PI/USDT pair could attempt a move back toward $1.80. Sellers are expected to pose a strong challenge at $1.80, but if the bulls prevail, the pair could rally to $2 and thereafter to $2.35.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from $1.80, it will signal a range formation. The pair may swing between $1.23 and $1.80 for a while. Sellers will strengthen their position on a break below $1.23. The pair may then collapse to the 78.6% retracement level of $0.72.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Artificial intelligence agents need to prioritize their intrinsic utility, not the launch of their in-house native tokens to raise funds.
AI agent-related tokens have significantly declined over the past month, as their cumulative market capitalization decreased by over 21% to the current $27 billion, according to CoinMarketCap data.
While their continued decline may be part of the broader crypto market correction, another reason could be a lack of focus on intrinsic utility, according to Changpeng Zhao, the founder and former CEO of Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.
30-day market cap chart of AI agent tokens. Source: CoinMarketCap
Zhao’s comments come during a significant downtrend for AI cryptocurrencies, which lost over 61% of their peak $70.4 billion market capitalization in the three months since they started to decline on Dec. 7.
AI agent tokens, market cap, 1-year chart. Source: Coinmarketcap
Numerous venture capital firms, including Pantera Capital and Dragonfly, are excited about the future of AI agents but have yet to invest in them, according to a panel discussion at Consensus 2025 in Hong Kong.
AI agents are performing autonomous blockchain transactions, exchange services
AI agents are gaining increasing interest thanks to their promise of increasing online productivity, streamlining decision-making processes and creating new financial opportunities.
AI agents are already executing autonomous transactions on the blockchain without direct human input.
The concept gained attention following a Dec. 16 post by Luna, an AI agent on Virtuals Protocol, which sought image-generation services.
LUNA virtual protocol, X post. Source: Luna
Luna also received an X response from STIX Protocol, another autonomous AI agent, which generated the requested images.
LUNA payments to STIX protocol. Source: Basescan
After the images were generated, Luna paid STIX Protocol’s AI agent $1.77 worth of VIRTUAL tokens on Dec. 16, onchain data shows.
Yet, some of the demand for AI agents has since faded, as Virtuals Protocol’s revenue fell 97%, Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 28.
AI agents launch platform ai16z and decentralized trading protocol Hyperliquid are “poised for growth in 2025,” Alvin Kan, chief operating officer of Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph. “Emerging narratives like AI-driven investments, decentralized AI agents and tokenized assets hint at a tech-driven shift, though with added risk,” he said.
Ether price remains pinned below $2,000 for several reasons, including declining Ethereum’s weak network activity and decreasing TVL, negative spot Ethereum ETF flows, and weak technicals.
Negative spot Ethereum ETF outflows
The underperformance in Ether’s price can be attributed to investors’ risk-off behavior, which is visible across the spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). ETH outflows from these investment products have persisted for more than two weeks.
US-based spot Ether ETFs have recorded a streak of outflows for the last seven days, totaling $265.4 million, as per data from SoSoValue.
At the same time, other Ethereum investment products saw outflows totaling $176 million. This brings month-to-date outflows out of Ether ETPs to $265 million, in what CoinShares’s head of research, James Butterfill, described as the “worst on record.”
He noted:
“This also marks the 17th straight day of outflows, the longest negative streak since our records began in 2015.”
Weak onchain activity hurts ETH price
To understand the key drivers behind Ether’s weakness, it is essential to analyze Ethereum’s onchain metrics.
The Ethereum network maintained its leadership based on the 7-day decentralized exchange (DEX) volume. However, the metric has been declining over the last few weeks, dropping by approximately 30% in the last seven days to reach $16.8 billion on March 17.
Key weaknesses for Ethereum included an 85% drop in activity on Maverick Protocol and a 45% decline in Dodo’s volumes.
Similarly, Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) decreased 9.3% month-to-date, down 47% from its January high of $77 billion to $46.37 billion on March 11.
Ethereum: total value locked. Source: DefiLlama
Lido was among the weakest performers in Ethereum deposits, with TVL dropping 30% over 30 days. Other notable declines included EigenLayer (-30%), Ether.fi (-29%), and Maker (-28%).
Ether’s bear flag target is at $1,530
Meanwhile, Ether’s technicals show a potential bear flag on the four-hour chart, which hints at more downside in the coming days or weeks.
A bear flag is a downward continuation pattern characterized by a small, upward-sloping channel formed by parallel lines against the prevailing downtrend. It gets resolved when the price decisively breaks below its lower trendline and falls by as much as the prevailing downtrend’s height.
ETH bulls are counting on support from the flag’s lower boundary at $1,880. A daily candlestick close below this level would signal a bearish breakout from the chart formation, projecting a decline to $1,530. Such a move would represent a 20% descent from the current price.
The relative strength index is positioned in the negative region at 48, suggesting that the market conditions still favor the downside.
The bulls will attempt a daily candlestick close above the flag’s middle boundary at $1,930 (embraced by the 50 SMA) to defend the support at $1,880. They must push the price above the flag’s upper limit of $1,970 to invalidate the bear flag chart pattern.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) continued seeing massive selling last week, recording the fifth week of outflows in a row, with $1.7 billion leaving the market.
After seeing slightly softened outflows of $876 million in the previous week, crypto ETP liquidations accelerated during the past trading week, bringing the total five-week outflows to $6.4 billion, CoinShares reported on March 17.
The ongoing outflow strike has also marked the 17th straight day of outflows, the longest negative streak since CoinShares started records in 2015, CoinShares’ James Butterfill wrote.
Despite notable negative sentiment, year-to-date (YTD) inflows remain positive at $912 million, he added.
Bitcoin ETP outflows: $5.4 billion in five weeks
After seeing $756 million outflows in the first week of March, Bitcoin (BTC) ETPs saw increased selling in the trading week from March 10 to March 14, seeing a further $978 million outflows.
The five-week selling streak brought total BTC ETP outflows to $5.4 billion, leaving just $612 million of YTD inflows by March 14.
Flows by asset (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares
Both Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) ETPs saw $175 million and $2.2 million outflows, respectively. XRP (XRP) ETPs continued to go against the trend, seeing a further $1.8 million in inflows.
This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.
While most analysts expect the crypto bull cycle to continue until the end of 2025, concerns over an economic recession in the United States, along with crypto’s “circular” economy, may still threaten crypto valuations.
Despite the recent market correction, most crypto analysts expect the bull cycle to peak after the third quarter of 2025, with Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.
Beyond external concerns, such as a potential recession in the world’s largest economy, crypto’s biggest industry-specific risk is the “circular” nature of its economy, according to Arthur Breitman, the co-founder of Tezos.
“Within the industry, the main risk is that the industry is still very much in search of grounding. It’s all still very circular,” Breitman told Cointelegraph.
“If you look at DeFi, for example, the point of finance is to finance something […], but if the only thing that DeFi finances is more DeFi, then that’s circular,” said Breitman, adding:
“If the only reason people want to buy your token is because they feel other people will want to buy this token, that’s circular.”
This is in stark contrast to the stock market, which is “built on revenue-generating businesses,” making the crypto industry’s “lack of grounding” one of the main industry threats, Breitman added.
Other industry insiders have also criticized the state of the crypto economy, specifically related to the latest memecoin meltdowns, which are siphoning liquidity from more established cryptocurrencies.
Solana outflows. Source: deBridge, Binance Research
US recession fears are crypto’s biggest external risk: Tezos co-founder
Beyond industry-specific events, larger macroeconomic concerns, including a potential US recession, threaten traditional and cryptocurrency markets.
“In terms of macro events, I still think we could see a recession,” said Breitman, adding:
“There’s a lot of bullish winds for the market, but there’s also a lot of traditional recession indicators which have been flashing for a while now. So I don’t think you can rule it out.”
Cryptocurrency markets still trade in significant correlation with tech stocks, meaning that a recession will cause a widespread sell-off, he added.
The current trade war concerns, driven by US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs and continued retaliatory measures, have reignited concerns over a potential recession.
Over 40% of market participants expect a recession in the US this year, up from just 22% a month ago on Feb. 17, according to the largest decentralized predictions market, Polymarket.
Four suspects were charged in connection with the home invasion of online streamer Amouranth, whose real name is Kaitlyn Siragusa. The streamer says she was held at gunpoint by several individuals demanding that she hand over the private keys to her crypto.
According to Fox 26, the suspects include Dylan Nesho Campbell, Bryan Anthony Salazar Guerrero and two additional suspects between the ages of 16-17.
Campbell and Guerrero were each charged with aggravated kidnapping and aggravated robbery with a deadly weapon, as was the 17-year-old suspect.
Luckily, her husband was on speakerphone, which the gunmen took in an attempt to access a crypto app. The husband, having been alerted to the situation, grabbed a handgun while attempting to gauge where the armed men were in the home.
The online streamer led the assailants around the home and convinced them to start looking for a cold storage device.
As the armed robbers were looking for the device, Siragusa ran upstairs to her husband, who was also watching the situation unfold on the home’s network of cameras.
Once she was safely upstairs, her husband fired off three rounds at assailants, likely shooting one in the process before the home invaders retreated and law enforcement arrived at the scene.
Siragusa’s husband later revealed that he was the one posting from her account as the incident unfolded. Source: Amouranth
The streamer previously disclosed that she held roughly 211 Bitcoin, worth over $20 million in November 2024, to online followers — making her a target for armed robbery.
The incident is merely the latest in a string of kidnappings and armed robberies aimed at crypto holders.
In January 2025, a UK court sentenced seven gang members for the kidnapping and extortion of a crypto investor, who was repeatedly assaulted and coerced into handing over funds over several months.
Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to break above the 200-day simple moving average ($84,000), but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears. Bitget Research chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin needs to achieve a weekly close above $81,000 to signal resilience. Selling could accelerate if the price plummets below $76,000.
Another cautious voice was that of Markus Thielen, head crypto researcher at 10x Research. Thielen told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s chart structure “suggests market indecision rather than a straightforward bullish consolidation.” Thielen remains doubtful of a strong price recovery in Bitcoin at the current juncture.
However, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson has a different view. In an X post, Peterson said that April and October are the two months that generate a large portion of Bitcoin’s annual performance. That suggests Bitcoin could rise to a “new all-time high before June.”
Could buyers drive Bitcoin above the short-term overhead resistance levels? If they do, what other top cryptocurrencies may rally in the near term?
Bitcoin price analysis
The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($86,188) suggests that bears are in command, but the positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) indicates that the selling pressure is reducing.
If the price turns down from the current level, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to $80,000 and then to $76,606.
Contrarily, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the markets have rejected the breakdown below the 200-day SMA. The pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($93,033) and, after that, to $100,000. Buyers may find it difficult to surpass the psychological barrier at $100,000.
The 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart is flattening out, and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. Buyers will have to drive the pair above the resistance line to gain the upper hand. The pair may climb to $92,810 and then to $95,000.
The downside support is at $80,000 and next at $78,000. If the supports crack, the possibility of a drop below $76,606 increases.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) started a recovery from $507 on March 11, which is facing selling at the 50-day SMA ($621).
The 20-day EMA ($595) is the critical near-term support to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the bulls are buying on minor dips. That improves the prospects of a break above the 50-day SMA. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally toward $686.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears are fiercely defending the 50-day SMA. The pair may tumble to $550.
The 20-EMA has turned up on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating a bullish sentiment. There is resistance at $632, but if buyers overcome it, the pair could jump to $680.
This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA. The pair may dip to the 50-SMA, which is again likely to attract buyers. A break below the 50-SMA will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) rose sharply from $2.35 on March 11 and reached the 50-day SMA ($3.64) on March 16.
The correction from the 50-day SMA is expected to find support at the 20-day EMA ($3.15). If that happens, it will signal a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That increases the possibility of a rally above the 50-day SMA. The TON/USDT pair could climb to $4 and later to $5.
Contrarily, a break and close below the 20-day EMA suggests that the bears remain active at higher levels. The pair may then drop toward $2.50.
The 4-hour chart shows the up move is facing selling at the $3.60 level, but buyers are expected to defend the 20-EMA on declines. If the price turns up sharply from the 20-EMA, the bulls will try to propel the price above $4.15. If they manage to do that, the pair could jump toward $4.67.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA, it will signal that the bears remain active at higher levels. The pair may drop to the 50-SMA and subsequently to $2.50.
The 20-day EMA ($21.06) is flattening out, and the RSI has risen to the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing. If buyers drive the price above the triangle, it will signal the resumption of the upmove. The GT/USDT pair could climb to $24 and eventually to $26.
If the price continues lower and closes below the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the pair may remain inside the triangle for a while. The bears will be back in command on a break below the triangle.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are finding it difficult to maintain the price below the 20-EMA. That suggests demand at lower levels. Buyers will try to strengthen their position by pushing the price above the resistance line. If they do that, the pair could rally toward $24.
Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-SMA, it will signal that the bullish momentum is weakening. The pair may descend to $19 and eventually to the support line.
Cosmos price analysis
Cosmos (ATOM) broke above the 20-day EMA ($4.31) on March 15, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing.
The RSI has formed a positive divergence, suggesting that the bearish momentum is weakening. The 50-day SMA ($4.73) could act as resistance but is likely to be crossed. A close above $5.15 could open the doors for a rally to $6.50.
The 20-day EMA is the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. If this support gives way, it will signal that the bears remain sellers on rallies. That could sink the ATOM/USDT pair to $3.50.
The pair started a pullback in the near term, which could reach the 20-EMA. If the price turns up from the 20-EMA, it will signal a positive sentiment where the bulls are buying on dips. That increases the likelihood of a break above $5.15. If that happens, the pair may surge to $5.50 and then to $6.50.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price breaks below the 20-EMA. That could sink the pair to the 50-SMA and later to $3.80.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
