The memecoin mania on Pump.fun is hitting a snag, with its “graduation rate” plummeting below 1% for the fourth consecutive week. This term, coined by the platform, refers to tokens that successfully transition from incubation to being fully tradable on a Solana decentralized exchange (DEX). To achieve this, tokens must meet specific liquidity and trading benchmarks.
Since February 17, data from Dune Analytics shows that Pump.fun’s graduation rate has consistently stayed below 1%—a first in its history. While the platform has never boasted a high success rate, its peak performance occurred in November 2024, when 1.67% of memecoins graduated to the open market. Back then, the sheer number of tokens launched made this percentage more impactful. During that week alone, 323,000 tokens were minted, translating to about 5,400 tokens entering Solana’s DeFi ecosystem.
However, the landscape is shifting. Token creation on both Pump.fun and Solana is dwindling, leading to a four-week average of around 1,500 token graduations at present, according to Dune Analytics.
The declining graduation rate mirrors a waning interest in memecoins among investors. These digital assets have gained a reputation as risky lottery tickets or quick cash grabs for their creators. Even political figures have jumped on the bandwagon, with former US President Donald Trump launching his own memecoin. Unfortunately, his token has plummeted 84% from its all-time high set on January 19, as per CoinGecko.
Despite improving liquidity conditions, memecoins continue to struggle. Matrixport analysts noted in February that a strengthening US dollar had pressured Bitcoin prices by tightening dollar-denominated liquidity. Since then, the US dollar has weakened, with the Dollar Index (DXY) dropping from a peak of 107.61 on February 28 to 103.95 by March 14.
“The US dollar’s recent weakening has led to a rebound in liquidity indicators and some marginal improvements in inflation data,” Matrixport stated. “Despite these positive shifts, memecoins—once a strong narrative during this bull market—continue to face significant challenges with no apparent recovery.”
The troubled memecoin market has contributed to a $1 trillion wipeout in crypto market capitalization, according to Matrixport. This wealth redistribution may make investors cautious about deploying further capital, limiting rebounds even when inflation data exceeds expectations.
Matrixport analysts caution that this could lead to further Bitcoin declines, potentially retracing to as low as $73,000—a level they believe would offer “strong support.”
As the memecoin frenzy faces headwinds, the crypto community watches closely to see if these digital assets can stage a comeback or if they will remain relics of a bygone era.
