Crypto Market 2025: US Recession and Circular Economy Risks Revealed

Crypto Market 2025: US Recession and Circular Economy Risks Revealed

Crypto market’s biggest risks in 2025: US recession, circular crypto economy

While most analysts expect the crypto bull cycle to continue until the end of 2025, concerns over an economic recession in the United States, along with crypto’s “circular” economy, may still threaten crypto valuations.

Despite the recent market correction, most crypto analysts expect the bull cycle to peak after the third quarter of 2025, with Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.

Beyond external concerns, such as a potential recession in the world’s largest economy, crypto’s biggest industry-specific risk is the “circular” nature of its economy, according to Arthur Breitman, the co-founder of Tezos.

“Within the industry, the main risk is that the industry is still very much in search of grounding. It’s all still very circular,” Breitman told Cointelegraph.

“If you look at DeFi, for example, the point of finance is to finance something […], but if the only thing that DeFi finances is more DeFi, then that’s circular,” said Breitman, adding:

“If the only reason people want to buy your token is because they feel other people will want to buy this token, that’s circular.”

This is in stark contrast to the stock market, which is “built on revenue-generating businesses,” making the crypto industry’s “lack of grounding” one of the main industry threats, Breitman added.

Other industry insiders have also criticized the state of the crypto economy, specifically related to the latest memecoin meltdowns, which are siphoning liquidity from more established cryptocurrencies.

Crypto market's biggest risks in 2025: US recession, circular crypto economy

Solana outflows. Source: deBridge, Binance Research

Solana was hit by over $485 million worth of outflows in February after the recent wave of memecoin rug pulls triggered an investor flight to “safety,” with some of the capital flowing into memecoins on the BNB Chain, such as the Broccoli memecoin, inspired by the Changpeng Zhao’s dog.

Related: Rising $219B stablecoin supply signals mid-bull cycle, not market top

US recession fears are crypto’s biggest external risk: Tezos co-founder

Beyond industry-specific events, larger macroeconomic concerns, including a potential US recession, threaten traditional and cryptocurrency markets.

“In terms of macro events, I still think we could see a recession,” said Breitman, adding:

“There’s a lot of bullish winds for the market, but there’s also a lot of traditional recession indicators which have been flashing for a while now. So I don’t think you can rule it out.”

Cryptocurrency markets still trade in significant correlation with tech stocks, meaning that a recession will cause a widespread sell-off, he added.

Related: Libra, Melania creator’s ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ memecoin crashes 99%

The current trade war concerns, driven by US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs and continued retaliatory measures, have reignited concerns over a potential recession.

Crypto market's biggest risks in 2025: US recession, circular crypto economy

Source: Polymarket

Over 40% of market participants expect a recession in the US this year, up from just 22% a month ago on Feb. 17, according to the largest decentralized predictions market, Polymarket.

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Amouranth Home Invasion: Four Suspects Charged in Shocking Case

Amouranth Home Invasion: Four Suspects Charged in Shocking Case

Four suspects charged in home invasion of streamer Amouranth

Four suspects were charged in connection with the home invasion of online streamer Amouranth, whose real name is Kaitlyn Siragusa. The streamer says she was held at gunpoint by several individuals demanding that she hand over the private keys to her crypto.

According to Fox 26, the suspects include Dylan Nesho Campbell, Bryan Anthony Salazar Guerrero and two additional suspects between the ages of 16-17.

Campbell and Guerrero were each charged with aggravated kidnapping and aggravated robbery with a deadly weapon, as was the 17-year-old suspect.

Siragusa reported that several armed individuals entered her home late at night on March 2, beat her, and held her at gunpoint, demanding her cryptocurrency.

Crimes

Source: Amouranth

Luckily, her husband was on speakerphone, which the gunmen took in an attempt to access a crypto app. The husband, having been alerted to the situation, grabbed a handgun while attempting to gauge where the armed men were in the home.

The online streamer led the assailants around the home and convinced them to start looking for a cold storage device.

As the armed robbers were looking for the device, Siragusa ran upstairs to her husband, who was also watching the situation unfold on the home’s network of cameras.

Once she was safely upstairs, her husband fired off three rounds at assailants, likely shooting one in the process before the home invaders retreated and law enforcement arrived at the scene.

Crimes

Siragusa’s husband later revealed that he was the one posting from her account as the incident unfolded. Source: Amouranth

The streamer previously disclosed that she held roughly 211 Bitcoin, worth over $20 million in November 2024, to online followers — making her a target for armed robbery.

Related: UK authorizes charges against NCA officer for alleged Bitcoin theft

Crypto kidnappings and extortion on the rise

The incident is merely the latest in a string of kidnappings and armed robberies aimed at crypto holders.

In January 2025, a UK court sentenced seven gang members for the kidnapping and extortion of a crypto investor, who was repeatedly assaulted and coerced into handing over funds over several months.

During that same month, reports emerged that Ledger co-founder David Balland was kidnapped in France and held for a crypto ransom before being rescued by law enforcement.

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Bitcoin surges past $80K as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM signal upcoming altcoin season

Bitcoin surges past $80K as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM signal upcoming altcoin season

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to break above the 200-day simple moving average ($84,000), but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears. Bitget Research chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin needs to achieve a weekly close above $81,000 to signal resilience. Selling could accelerate if the price plummets below $76,000.

Another cautious voice was that of Markus Thielen, head crypto researcher at 10x Research. Thielen told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s chart structure “suggests market indecision rather than a straightforward bullish consolidation.” Thielen remains doubtful of a strong price recovery in Bitcoin at the current juncture.

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

However, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson has a different view. In an X post, Peterson said that April and October are the two months that generate a large portion of Bitcoin’s annual performance. That suggests Bitcoin could rise to a “new all-time high before June.”

Could buyers drive Bitcoin above the short-term overhead resistance levels? If they do, what other top cryptocurrencies may rally in the near term?

Bitcoin price analysis

The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($86,188) suggests that bears are in command, but the positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) indicates that the selling pressure is reducing.

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price turns down from the current level, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to $80,000 and then to $76,606. 

Contrarily, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the markets have rejected the breakdown below the 200-day SMA. The pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($93,033) and, after that, to $100,000. Buyers may find it difficult to surpass the psychological barrier at $100,000.

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart is flattening out, and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. Buyers will have to drive the pair above the resistance line to gain the upper hand. The pair may climb to $92,810 and then to $95,000.

The downside support is at $80,000 and next at $78,000. If the supports crack, the possibility of a drop below $76,606 increases. 

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) started a recovery from $507 on March 11, which is facing selling at the 50-day SMA ($621).

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($595) is the critical near-term support to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the bulls are buying on minor dips. That improves the prospects of a break above the 50-day SMA. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally toward $686.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears are fiercely defending the 50-day SMA. The pair may tumble to $550.

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

BNB/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-EMA has turned up on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating a bullish sentiment. There is resistance at $632, but if buyers overcome it, the pair could jump to $680.

This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA. The pair may dip to the 50-SMA, which is again likely to attract buyers. A break below the 50-SMA will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) rose sharply from $2.35 on March 11 and reached the 50-day SMA ($3.64) on March 16.

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The correction from the 50-day SMA is expected to find support at the 20-day EMA ($3.15). If that happens, it will signal a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That increases the possibility of a rally above the 50-day SMA. The TON/USDT pair could climb to $4 and later to $5.

Contrarily, a break and close below the 20-day EMA suggests that the bears remain active at higher levels. The pair may then drop toward $2.50.

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

TON/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows the up move is facing selling at the $3.60 level, but buyers are expected to defend the 20-EMA on declines. If the price turns up sharply from the 20-EMA, the bulls will try to propel the price above $4.15. If they manage to do that, the pair could jump toward $4.67.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA, it will signal that the bears remain active at higher levels. The pair may drop to the 50-SMA and subsequently to $2.50.

Related: Toncoin in ‘great entry zone’ as Pavel Durov’s France exit fuels TON price rally

Gate Token price analysis

Gate Token (GT) has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

GT/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($21.06) is flattening out, and the RSI has risen to the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing. If buyers drive the price above the triangle, it will signal the resumption of the upmove. The GT/USDT pair could climb to $24 and eventually to $26.

If the price continues lower and closes below the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the pair may remain inside the triangle for a while. The bears will be back in command on a break below the triangle.

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

GT/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are finding it difficult to maintain the price below the 20-EMA. That suggests demand at lower levels. Buyers will try to strengthen their position by pushing the price above the resistance line. If they do that, the pair could rally toward $24.

Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-SMA, it will signal that the bullish momentum is weakening. The pair may descend to $19 and eventually to the support line.

Cosmos price analysis

Cosmos (ATOM) broke above the 20-day EMA ($4.31) on March 15, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing.

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

ATOM/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The RSI has formed a positive divergence, suggesting that the bearish momentum is weakening. The 50-day SMA ($4.73) could act as resistance but is likely to be crossed. A close above $5.15 could open the doors for a rally to $6.50.

The 20-day EMA is the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. If this support gives way, it will signal that the bears remain sellers on rallies. That could sink the ATOM/USDT pair to $3.50. 

Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season

ATOM/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair started a pullback in the near term, which could reach the 20-EMA. If the price turns up from the 20-EMA, it will signal a positive sentiment where the bulls are buying on dips. That increases the likelihood of a break above $5.15. If that happens, the pair may surge to $5.50 and then to $6.50.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price breaks below the 20-EMA. That could sink the pair to the 50-SMA and later to $3.80.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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XRP Surges: Could It Overtake Ethereum Before Solana?

XRP Surges: Could It Overtake Ethereum Before Solana?

Forget Solana, XRP may flip Ethereum first amid 5-year high

XRP (XRP) price versus Ether (ETH) reached its highest level in five years over the weekend, extending its recovery.

On March 15, the XRP/ETH pair touched 0.00128 ETH for the first time since April 2020. That amounts to a 925% rebound when measured from its all-time low of 0.00013 ETH established in June 2024 and approximately 620% gains since November 2024, when Donald Trump won the US presidential election.

Forget Solana, XRP may flip Ethereum first amid 5-year high

XRP/ETH weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP potential breakout versus ETH

The XRP/ETH rally is fueling speculation among market watchers that XRP could flip Ether to become the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

For instance, analyst Dom highlights 0.0012 ETH as a historically significant resistance level, a threshold that has consistently preceded explosive rallies in past cycles. He notes that XRP has gone parabolic after breaking this resistance, delivering gains of at least 160% in previous instances.

Forget Solana, XRP may flip Ethereum first amid 5-year high

XRP/ETH 12-hour price charts. Source: TradingView/Dom

He illustrated the same with three key breakout points—in early 2017, late 2017, and 2018 when XRP’s surged against Ether following a confirmed breach of the 0.0012 ETH resistance.

As of March 16, XRP was once again testing this critical level. If history repeats itself, even a partial rally of 80% would be enough for XRP to flip ETH in market capitalization, DOM suggests, especially as Ether’s price risks more downside in 2025.

Related: XRP price poised for 46% gains after Ripple secures first Dubai license

At $138 billion, XRP’s market cap is less than $100 billion short of hitting Ethereum’s. Moreover, XRP’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) briefly surpassed Ethereum’s earlier this week.

For context, FDV represents the total theoretical value of all tokens, including those not yet in circulation, whereas market capitalization only accounts for tokens currently in circulation.

Why is Ethereum underperforming XRP?

XRP’s market dominance has grown by over 300% since Trump’s reelection on Nov. 5.

Forget Solana, XRP may flip Ethereum first amid 5-year high

XRP.D vs. ETH.D daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The same period has witnessed Ethereum losing its market share by over 35.50%, showing a clear lack of interest among traders for Ether compared to other top-ranking crypto assets.

A key factor in this divergence is regulatory sentiment. Trump has positioned the US as the future “world’s crypto capital,” appointing pro-crypto regulators and pledging to foster a more favorable environment.

This shift has especially benefited XRP, which caters to enterprise users, particularly as Ripple unveiled an institutional DeFi roadmap in February.

Meanwhile, Ethereum has slumped due to rising competition from rival layer-1 blockchains, particularly Solana (SOL).

The Dencun upgrade in March 2024, which slashed Ethereum’s transaction fees by 95%, was intended to improve scalability. However, it has also reduced ETH burn rates, increasing supply and weakening its deflationary appeal and “ultrasound money” narrative.

Forget Solana, XRP may flip Ethereum first amid 5-year high

ETH supply rate since the Merge. Source: UltraSound Money

At the same time, Solana’s dominance has risen, with its trading volume now rivaling Ethereum and all its layer-2 chains combined.

The network’s faster and cheaper transactions have made it the go-to platform for DeFi activity, memecoin trading, and NFT markets, which Ethereum previously dominated. This shift has eroded Ethereum’s market share, particularly among traders and developers seeking high-speed, low-cost transactions.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Toncoin Price Surge: Pavel Durov's France Exit Creates Prime Buying Opportunity

Toncoin Price Surge: Pavel Durov’s France Exit Creates Prime Buying Opportunity

Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally

Toncoin (TON) has surged by over 50% in the past week, fueled by news that Telegram founder Pavel Durov has been granted permission to leave France for Dubai.

Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally

TON/USDT weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

TON’s bullish reversal, especially after falling to $2.35, its lowest level in a year, has traders eyeing key price levels, with crypto analyst Crypto Patel highlighting a “great entry zone” for long-term investors.

TON is eyeing a 100% rally in 2025

As Crypto Patel notes, TON’s price has “perfectly bounced” from its support level of around $2.50.

Furthermore, the support falls inside the $2.40-3.00 area that served as resistance in December 2022-April 2023 and September 2023-April 2024 periods. The analyst argues that the area now served as a “great entry zone,” citing TON’s ongoing rebound from the same range.

Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally

TON/USDT weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Crypto Patel

A decisive rebound from the $2.40-3.00 zone could have TON target its prevailing descending trendline resistance in the coming weeks, which may push its price toward $5 by June or July.

Related: Wallet in Telegram to list 50 tokens and launch yield program

The upside outlook aligns with analyst Profit Mind’s falling wedge setup, which anticipates the Toncoin price to grow toward the $6 upside target if it breaks above the wedge’s upper trendline.

Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally

TON/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Falling wedges typically resolve when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.

Analyst Crypto Billion further anticipates a bullish reversal in TON markets, citing its oversold relative strength index (RSI) as a primary catalyst for potential long-term accumulation.

Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally

Source: Crypto Billion

Toncoin’s Sharpe ratio, a financial metric used to measure an asset’s risk-adjusted returns, further indicates oversold conditions in the TON market.

As of March 16, the 180-day average ratio had dropped below -25, as denoted in blue. In the past, TON has undergone bullish reversals largely when its Sharpe ratio turned blue, as seen in late 2022 and mid-2023.

Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally

TON Sharpe ratio (180 days). Source: CryptoQuant

TON shorts remain dominant

In the derivatives market, Toncoin is witnessing a resurgence in its open interest (OI) — a metric tracking the total number of unsettled TON contracts such as options and futures.

As of March 16, TON’s OI was around $169.12 million, compared to $80.75 million just five days prior.

Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally

TON Futures’ OI and funding rates. Source: CoinGlass

On the flip side, TON’s weekly funding rates are treading around negative territory — they marginally rose into positive territory after plunging to -0.678% earlier on March 16.

When funding rates turn negative as OI rises, it often reflects bearish sentiment with aggressive shorting. The 30-day liquidation map tracking TON/USDT on Bybit risks nearly $10 million in long liquidations if the Toncoin price falls toward $2.54.

Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally

Bybit TON/USDT 30-day liquidation map (as of March 16). Source: Coinglass

Conversely, the same liquidation map reveals that approximately $12 million worth of short positions could be at risk if TON surpasses the $4 mark.

If this scenario plays out, the cascading effect of forced buybacks could accelerate Toncoin’s upward momentum, sending the price to the aforementioned levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Libra Memecoin Plummets 99%: Melania Creator's 'Wolf of Wall Street' Token Takes a Hit

Libra Memecoin Plummets 99%: Melania Creator’s ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ Token Takes a Hit

Libra, Melania creator’s ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ memecoin crashes 99%

The creator of the Libra (LIBRA) token has launched another memecoin with some of the same concerning onchain patterns that pointed to significant insider trading activity ahead of the coin’s 99% collapse.

Hayden Davis, the co-creator of the Official Melania Meme (MELANIA) and the Libra token, has launched a new Solana-based memecoin, with an over 80% insider supply.

Davis launched the Wolf (WOLF) memecoin on March 8, banking on rumors of Jordan Belfort, known as the Wolf of Wall Street, launching his own token.

The token reached a peak $42 million market cap, however, 82% of the WOLF token’s supply was bundled under the same entity, according to a March 15 X post by Bubblemaps, which wrote:

“The bubble map revealed something strange — $WOLF had the same pattern as $HOOD, a token launched by Hayden Davis. Was he behind this one too?”

Libra, Melania creator's ‘Wolf of Wall Street' memecoin crashes 99%

Source: Bubblemaps

The blockchain analytics platform revealed transfers across 17 different addresses stemming back to address ‘OxcEAe’ owned by Davis.

“He funded these wallets months before $LIBRA and $WOLF launched, moving money through 17 addresses and 2 chains,” Bubblemaps added.

Libra, Melania creator's ‘Wolf of Wall Street' memecoin crashes 99%

Source: Bubblemaps

The Wolf memecoin lost over 99% of its value within two days, from the peak $42.9 million market capitalization on March 8 at 4:00 a.m. UTC, to just $570,000 at press time, Dexscreener data shows.

Libra, Melania creator's ‘Wolf of Wall Street' memecoin crashes 99%

WOLF/SOL, market cap, 1-hour chart. Source: Dexscreener

Davies’ latest token launch comes weeks after the Libra token’s collapse where eight insider wallets cashed out $107 million in liquidity, leading to a $4 billion market cap wipeout within hours.

The Libra token turned into a political issue, with Argentinian President Javier Milei risking impeachment after his endorsement of the Libra coin.

Argentine lawyer Gregorio Dalbon has asked for an Interpol Red Notice to be issued for Davis citing a “procedural risk” if Davis remained free as he could have access to vast amounts of money that would allow him to either flee the US or go into hiding.

Related: Milei-endorsed Libra token was ‘open secret’ in memecoin circles — Jupiter

Memecoins are turning into “retail value extraction tools”

Memecoins are turning against crypto’s fundamental ethos of decentralization, becoming increasingly used to exploit retail investors amid the growing number of rug pulls, according to Anastasija Plotnikova, co-founder and CEO of blockchain regulatory firm Fideum.

“Memecoins have evolved from community-driven social experiments into a chaotic landscape dominated by value extraction from retail investors,” Plotnikova told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Insider rings, pump-and-dump schemes, and sniper groups have replaced the organic, collectible nature of original memecoins, creating an unhealthy playing field.”

Related: TRUMP, DOGE, BONK ETF approvals ‘more likely’ under new SEC leadership

Investors will also need to distinguish between memecoins that can be seen as genuine “collectibles” and “outright fraudulent activities” like rug pulls which are “not only unethical but also clearly illegal, with case law to support enforcement.”

“In my view, these activities should fall firmly within the jurisdiction of law enforcement agencies,” she added.

United States regulators are becoming increasingly aware of the growing memecoin scams.

A New York lawmaker introduced a bill that would establish criminal penalties specifically aimed at preventing cryptocurrency fraud and protecting investors from rug pulls, Cointelegraph reported on March 6.

Under the proposal, new criminal charges would be created for offenses involving “virtual token fraud,” explicitly targeting deceptive practices associated with cryptocurrencies.

Magazine: Caitlyn Jenner memecoin ‘mastermind’s’ celebrity price list leaked

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Bitcoin shakeout signals opportunity, not end of 4-year cycle say analysts

Bitcoin shakeout signals opportunity, not end of 4-year cycle say analysts

Bitcoin experiencing “shakeout” not end of 4-year cycle: analysts

Bitcoin’s historic bull cycle is still intact, despite widespread investor fear over the current correction, which may only be a temporary “shakeout” ahead of the next leg up, according to crypto market analysts.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is currently down 22% from its all-time high of over $109,000 recorded on Jan. 20, on the day of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

Despite investor sentiment dropping into “Extreme Fear” multiple times, historic chart patterns suggest that this may just be a price shakeout — a sudden price drop caused by multiple investors exiting their positions, preceded by a sudden price recovery.

“Several key technical indicators have turned bearish, leading to speculation that the bull cycle may be ending prematurely,” Bitfinex analysts told Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin experiencing “shakeout” not end of 4-year cycle: analysts

BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph

“Despite this, Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle remains an important factor, historically shaping price movements,” said the analysts, adding:

“Corrections within bull cycles are normal, and past trends suggest that this may be a shakeout rather than the start of a prolonged bear market.”

However, the launch of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which temporarily surpassed $125 billion in cumulative holdings, along with the growing institutional crypto investments make it “clear that the conventional cycle ceases to exist,” the analysts added.

Related: Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMC

In an optimistic sign for price action, Bitcoin staged a daily close above $84,000 on March 15, for the first time in over a week since March 8, TradingView data shows.

Bitcoin experiencing “shakeout” not end of 4-year cycle: analysts

BTC/USD, 1-day chart. Source: TradingView 

However, due to Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional financial markets, BTC may only find a bottom along with equity markets, particularly the S&P 500, said Bitfinex analysts, adding:

“While $72,000–$73,000 remains a key support range, the broader market narrative, especially global treasury yields and equity trends, will dictate Bitcoin’s next major move.”

“Trade wars have already been priced in, to some extent, but prolonged economic strain could weigh on sentiment,” the analysts added.

Related: Rising $219B stablecoin supply signals mid-bull cycle, not market top

Bitcoin halving and four-year cycle still crucial for price action: Nexo analyst

Despite fears over a disrupted Bitcoin bull market, the four-year cycle, along with the Bitcoin halving event, remain crucial for Bitcoin’s price action, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo digital asset investment platform.

“Bitcoin’s four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has declined to a record low of 8%, posing questions about whether its traditional four-year cycle remains valid,” Kalchev told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Although strong institutional adoption over the past year has served as a significant tailwind for Bitcoin, its halving events are still expected to exert long-term influence.”

The 2024 Bitcoin halving reduced the Bitcoin network’s block reward to 3.125 BTC per block.

Bitcoin experiencing “shakeout” not end of 4-year cycle: analysts

BTC/USD, 1-day chart since 2024 halving. Source: TradingView 

Bitcoin price is up over 31% since the last halving occurred on April 20, 2024, which was coined the “most bullish” setup for Bitcoin price, partly because of the growing institutional interest in the world’s first cryptocurrency.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

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Toncoin Open Interest Jumps 67% Amid Pavel Durov's Exit from France

Toncoin Open Interest Jumps 67% Amid Pavel Durov’s Exit from France

Toncoin open interest soars 67% as Pavel Durov departs France

Toncoin Open Interest (OI) has jumped 67% over the past 24 hours amid reports of Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s departure from France, where he had been required to stay since his arrest seven months ago.

On March 15, Toncoin (TON) OI  — a metric tracking the total number of unsettled Toncoin derivative contracts such as options and futures —  reached $169 million, representing a 67% increase from the previous day when the reports of Durov’s departure first surfaced, according to CoinGlass data.

Toncoin open interest reaches highest level in 42 days

It is the highest level of OI in Toncoin since Feb. 1, when it was sitting at $171.49 million.

TON is The Open Network’s native cryptocurrency and is the exclusive blockchain infrastructure for Telegram’s Mini App ecosystem.

Toncoin open interest soars 67% as Pavel Durov departs France

Toncoin open interest surged 67% on March 15. Source: CoinGlass

TON’s price jumped 17% over the same 24-hour period, trading at $3.45 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Trading resource account Crypto Billion said in a March 15 X post that Toncoin is “showing signs of a potential long-term accumulation phase as it stabilizes near key support levels.”

However, if this rally is short-lived, around $18.8 million in long positions could be liquidated if TON’s price falls back toward the $3 level it was trading at on March 14.

Toncoin open interest also surged after arrest in 2024

The court reportedly allowed Durov to travel to Dubai, a city with no extradition agreements with many countries.

The market’s reaction hints at the potential significance of this case for the crypto industry. Many are worried that Durov’s arrest in August 2024 in France could set a precedent for cracking down on other privacy-focused services. He was accused of running a platform that enables illicit transactions.

Related: Bitget predicts TON ‘de-Telegramization’ in the next 2 year

Similarly, when Durov was arrested in August 2024, TON’s OI also surged. 

Following the news of Durov’s arrest on Aug. 24, 2024, TON’s OI spiked 32% over the following 24 hours, alongside its price falling almost 12%.

On Jan. 21, Telegram announced it would cease support for all blockchains other than The Open Network for its messenger services.

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Kaito AI Hacked: Founder Yu Hu's X Social Media Accounts Compromised

Kaito AI Hacked: Founder Yu Hu’s X Social Media Accounts Compromised

Kaito AI and founder Yu Hu's X social media accounts hacked

Kaito AI, an artificial intelligence-powered platform that aggregates crypto data to provide market analysis for users, and its founder Yu Hu, were the victims of an X social media hack on March 15.

In several now-deleted posts, hackers claimed that the Kaito wallets were compromised and advised users that their funds were not safe.

According to DeFi Warhol, the hackers opened up a short position on KAITO tokens before posting the messages in the hopes that users would sell or pull their funds, which would have crashed the price and created profits for the threat actors.

Cybercrime, Cybersecurity, Scams, Hacks

The price of the KAITO token dips, presumably due to a short position. Source: CoinMarketCap

The Kaito AI team regained access to the accounts and reassured users that Kaito token wallets were not compromised in the social media exploit.

“We had high-standard security measures in place to prevent [the hack] — so it seems to be similar or the same as other recent Twitter account hacks,” the Kaito AI team added.

This recent exploit is the latest in a growing list of social media hacks, social engineering scams, and cybersecurity incidents plaguing the crypto industry.

Cybercrime, Cybersecurity, Scams, Hacks

Source: Kaito AI

Related: Kaito AI token defies influencer selling pressure with 50% price rally

Vigilance is key: some of the latest scams and exploits to impact crypto

Pump.fun’s X account was hacked on Feb. 26 by a threat actor promoting several fake tokens, including a fraudulent governance token for the fair launch platform called “Pump.”

According to onchain sleuth ZackXBT, the Pump.fun incident was directly connected to the Jupiter DAO account hack and the DogWifCoin X account compromise.

On March 7, The Alberta Securities Commission, a Canadian financial regulator, warned the public that malicious actors were using fake news articles and fake endorsements featuring the likeness of Canadian politicians to promote a crypto scam.

The scam, known as CanCap, played on fears of a trade war between Canada and the US to lure unsuspecting victims into investing in the project, which the scammers claimed had the support of Canadian leader Justin Trudeau.

Cybercrime, Cybersecurity, Scams, Hacks

An example of a Lazarus social engineering scam where the hackers pretend to be venture capitalists experiencing audio-visual issues. Source: Nick Bax

Crypto executives are also sounding the alarm on a new scam from the state-sponsored Lazarus hacker group, where the hackers pose as venture capitalists in a Zoom meeting.

Once the target is in the meeting room, the hackers would claim they were experiencing audio-visual issues and redirect the victim to a malicious chat room where the user is encouraged to download a patch.

The patch contains malicious software designed to steal crypto private keys and other sensitive information from the victim’s computer.

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Toncoin skyrockets as Pavel Durov exits France after months

Toncoin skyrockets as Pavel Durov exits France after months

Toncoin surges as Pavel Durov leaves France after months

The price of Toncoin (TON) jumped over 6% following the release of Telegram founder Pavel Durov from France, where he had been compelled to remain since his arrest in August 2024.

According to CoinMarketCap, the price of TON has rallied by roughly 18% in the last 24 hours and over 13% in the last seven days.

Following the news of the Telegram founder’s arrest in France on Aug. 24, 2024, the price of TON plummeted by over 35%, from roughly $6.88 to $4.44 by September 2024.

The digital asset reached a high of $7.20 on December 4, 2024, amid a historic rally in the crypto markets in response to the re-election of President Donald Trump in the United States.

However, TON’s price collapsed by roughly 67% after the post-election rally, reaching a low of $2.36 on March 11, 2025.

Telegram, Pavel Durov, TON

Toncoin’s price action since August 2024. Source: TradingView

Toncoin is the cryptocurrency of The Open Network, which is separate from the Telegram platform, but has become a staple for users of the messaging application.

French prosecutors accused Durov of running a platform that allegedly enables illegal activities, according to charges announced on Aug. 28, 2024.

Durov being granted approval to leave France was applauded by Telegram and TON users as a win for freedom of speech, while the debate between online security and freedom of expression continues to foment.

Related: Wallet in Telegram to list 50 tokens and launch yield program

Pavel Durov finally allowed to leave France after months

The Telegram founder reportedly secured permission to leave France on March 13 to travel to Dubai.

According to the AFP news agency, unnamed sources confirmed Durov’s departure from the European country this morning, and other sources claimed that the Telegram founder was allowed to leave France for “several weeks.”

At this point, it is unclear whether the case has been settled in French courts or if Durov has only been granted temporary travel time while the case is arbitrated in the legal system.

Telegram, Pavel Durov, TON

A translated statement from the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office announcing charges against Telegram founder Pavel Durov. Source: Jacques Pezet

French law enforcement officials have accused Telegram of facilitating illegal activities by failing to censor the messaging platform and also pressed charges against Durov — forcing him to remain in France as part of a bail agreement.

The Telegram founder later characterized the arrest as unnecessary and said that the company maintains a representative in the European Union to handle legal requests.

Durov emphasized that he and the company would have gladly cooperated with French authorities if an appropriate legal request for help was submitted.

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